Oil prices declined in September and early October, as demand growth weakened further
The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand next year by 0.5 percent as the worst financial crisis since the 1930s threatens a global recession.
The IEA lowered its 2009 projection by 440,000 barrels a day to 87.2 million barrels a day, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly report, citing a weaker economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund.
Non-OPEC supply growth this year has been ''largely wiped out'' after hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and pipeline disruptions in Azerbaijan. The agency reduced its estimate for 2008 for the seventh time this year.
The following are the basic points of IEA"s report:
- Oil prices declined in September and early October, as demand growth weakened further, offsetting the impact of hurricane-related outages and lower OPEC output. US crude futures fell from around $100/bbl in early September to below $90 in early October.
However, prices remain very volatile, with unprecedented daily swings.
- Oil demand forecasts for 2008 and 2009 were trimmed by 240 kb/d and 440 kb/d, respectively, given weaker OECD deliveries and the IMF"s downward revisions to 2009 global GDP assumptions. World oil demand is expected to average 86.5 mb/d in 2008 (+0.5% or +0.4 mb/d vs. 2007) and 87.2 mb/d in 2009 (+0.8% or +0.7 mb/d). Global oil supply declined by 1.1 mb/d in September to 85.6 mb/d. Hurricane outages in the Gulf of Mexico and renewed stoppages in Azerbaijan and among OPEC producers offset higher supply from Russia and the North Sea. Non-OPEC net output growth is largely wiped out for 2008, now averaging 150 kb/d, plus an extra 310 kb/d from OPEC gas liquids. Combined 2009 growth is +1.45 mb/d.
- September OPEC crude supply fell 0.3 mb/d to 32.3 mb/d, largely due to unplanned outages. The 9 September OPEC meeting, which reinforced output targets, will be followed by an extraordinary meeting on 18 November to discuss the impact of the global financial crisis on the oil market. Effective OPEC spare capacity stands at 2.1 mb/d.
- OECD stocks fell by 5.1 mb in August to 2,645 mb, including notable draws in European crude and US motor gasoline. Hurricanes drove further dramatic draws in US products and could have reduced OECD total stock cover from 54.9 days at end-August to 53.6 days by end-September, according to preliminary data.
- Global refinery crude throughput should average 74.9 mb/d in 4Q08, 0.8 mb/d lower than forecast in last month"s report, on weaker demand, higher maintenance, hurricane-related disruptions and economic run cuts.