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Goldman Sachs predicts crude price rise in 2Q

Goldman Sachs predicts crude price rise in 2Q
'Our confidence that stocks will draw in 2016 if prices remain low is rising,' investment banking says

Crude oil prices will rise by an average of $5 per barrel in the second quarter, Goldman Sachs said Friday.

Prices are expected to increase to between $25 to $45 per barrel, up from the $20 to $40 per barrel range in the present quarter.

"As we do not expect growth from OPEC and Russia after 2Q16, and given our expectation for resilient demand growth, our confidence that stocks will draw in 2016 if prices remain low is rising," it said in a report.

Oversupply has been a major contributor to the worst price slump since 2008.

A supply glut has increased and caused a build up in inventories that has placed greater downward pressure on oil prices in the past 18 months.

Prices fell around 75 percent from June 2014 when they were around $115 per barrel, to around $27 a barrel in January.

Goldman Sachs pointed to three significant factors for the anticipated price recovery, including low oil prices that would increase global demand that has been low with economic slowdowns in Asia and Europe and would eventually trim crude inventories.

But low oil prices need to be sustained in order to allow a rebalancing of supply and demand in the global oil market, it said.

"This is why an early rally in oil prices before a real deficit materializes would prove self-defeating in our view, as it would reverse these nascent supply curtailments," according to the report.

The investment giant also warned against an increase of crude and oil products inventories in the U.S. that could lead to a sharp price decline in April.

"The risk that U.S. storage saturation pushes prices sharply lower in coming weeks remains high in our view," the report noted.

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