Opec"s oil-export revenue is set to tumble more than 50 per cent next year to a five-year due to production cuts.
Opec"s oil-export revenue is set to tumble more than 50 per cent next year to a five-year low due to the combined effect of sharply lower crude prices and production cuts. In a new forecast released late last week, the US government projected the group"s net revenue from oil exports would slump to US$444 billion (Dh1.63 trillion) in 2009 after narrowly failing to break
through the trillion dollar threshold this year. That would be the lowest level since 2004, when Opec revenue stood at $335bn.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) trimmed its 2008 forecast for Opec revenue to $962bn from an earlier projection of $1.08 trillion, taking account of the record five-month slide in oil prices to less than 70 per cent of their peak in July, and factoring in estimates of the group"s January-to-November oil exports. That would still be a record for Opec, which benefited in the first half of the year from the strong run-up in crude prices that now seems certain to keep the average 2008 price above $100 a barrel.
According to the latest EIA estimates, Opec"s oil-export revenue for the first eleven months of this year reached $925bn. Saudi Arabia, by far the group"s biggest producer, also earned the most, with $274bn of estimated revenue for the period, followed by the UAE with $88bn.