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Saudi strikes on Yemen, any Iran deal to have little oil supply impact-Goldman

Saudi strikes on Yemen, any Iran deal to have little oil supply impact-Goldman
Saudi Arabian-led strikes on Yemen and a potential nuclear deal with Iran that could lead to a loosening of sanctions against Tehran would have little near-term impact on oil supplies, Goldman Sachs said.

Oil prices fell earlier in March, in part on the rising odds of a deal with Iran being reached, while crude markets soared this week as a coalition of Sunni-ruled nations, led by Saudi Arabia, started airstrikes in Yemen against Shiite Houthi rebels.
“We expect both events to have negligible near-term supply impacts, with the build in crude inventories set to continue in 2Q 15. Longer term, a deal with Iran could lead to greater OPEC supplies although the timing of the sanction relief remains uncertain,” Goldman Sachs said in an overnight note to clients.
“While Yemen is a small producer (145,000 barrels per day in 2014), the price rally is driven by fears of potential escalation and the proximity of the Bab el-Mandeb strait … Closure of the strait could impact 3.8 mb/d of crude and product flows,” the bank said, but added that tankers could be diverted to travel around Africa instead of passing Yemen.
About Iran, the bank said that any deal was unlikely to lead to higher Iranian oil exports before the second half of the year.

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