The trend indicates that a significant slippage can be expected with regard to the drybulk deliveries planned for this year as Chinese shipbuilders, which account for 65 % of the global dry bulk orderbook, return to production following the drop in coronavirus infection cases.
MSI believes the current economic turmoil could offer the yards a chance to re-organize the delivery schedule to help address an arguably bigger problem.
“The orderbook in China is heavily front-loaded and dry bulk shipbuilding activity in the country will drop off a cliff in 2021 unless the schedule is effectively managed,” says MSI Dry Bulk Analyst Will Fray.
Given that three-quarters of the orderbook for 120,000 dwt vessels and above is at Chinese yards, MSI believes a significant amount of slippage from the planned Capesize orderbook is inevitable, with just 0.7 million dwt delivered on average per month over the next three months.
In comparison, a little over half of the Panamax orderbook for delivery this year is being constructed in China, with most of the remainder in Japan. Chinese shipyards account of 54% of the 2020 Handysize orderbook by deadweight with this orderbook also heavily ‘front-loaded’ suggesting that significant slippage should be expected, MSI data shows.
“In the Capesize sector, the delivery schedule is hugely front-loaded, implying a large number of vessels are almost ready for delivery from China. The outbreak of COVID-19 has so far been far less severe in Japan, and we expect to see less slippage in the sub-Capesize segments,” adds Fray.
“What remains to be seen is whether shipyards can use the market downturn to manage the flow of tonnage in the face of a low orderbook and weak contracting activity.”
TURKISH MARITIME NEWS